I do know about advances in genre fiction (mystery, romance, fantasy, sci-fi, etc) and in non-fiction. Even a few years ago, advances from a Big 6 publisher for these kinds of titles were averaging around $30,000. Most of these advances would never "pay out", meaning, the book sales would never generate enough royalties for you to pay back this loan of thirty grand the publisher gave you at their risk, so you'd never (usually) see another dime. In other words, you just sold your income from that one title FOREVER for thirty grand. Given that the publisher had to find three HUNDRED grand to print and distribute and edit and design and promote your book, you got off easy. If you think that the time you spent writing the actual product the whole thing was about was worth thirty grand, total, end of story.
The current average advance for genre fiction is now only $10,000. Ten grand. Two years to write it? Ten grand. Your life's work? Ten grand.
(Oh, and in non-fiction? Three grand. And the average advance for books on, say, history or philosophy or militaria or anything vaguely academic from indie academic presses? Zero. Advances from such corners are practically unheard of.)
So I'm about two days away from wrapping the first draft of this manuscript (I'm a pretty tight writer and stick to outline – coming from screenwriting I'm very disciplined about structure and story beats and dialogue, so my first drafts are pretty far along. More like a third, usually, but I'm weird that way.) Then a week's distance from the book, a two-day what-was-I-thinking-athon of quick edits, then it's off to the editor, who will kick my ass, and then we'll fight and then I'll surrender and the editor will have been right all along, and then I'll rewrite and fix things and tweak and spend a day to format and that's that. I'll have a product worth paying for.
So what am I going to sell that for? After all, it's my product. I have a decision to make.
Okay, so I get a call from somebody who hears about this book and she says, hey, I have a publisher lined up, and they have a cheque here for ten thousand dollars. Woohoo! Mexico, here I come! Take THAT, credit card payment!
Uh, no. Not so fast, I have some math to do.
Let's safely assume that because I chose to invest my time in something marketable, having done my market research up front (this is a business, after all – who would open up a cupcake store without making sure people in the neighbourhood wanted cupcakes, in which flavours, and at what price?) I've written something people actually want to purchase. So I went ahead and manufactured that product. That took me x months (three, in my case, or just under). What's three months of my time worth?
If I took the ten grand, that would cover my expenses, anyway. I have to house and feed and transport the writer (me) and give him hardware and software and office space and coffee. But it's not a business if it's just meeting production expenses. There needs to be a profit, and there's "opportunity cost".
Ten grand would, therefore, not cover it. A standard industry advance would be a loss for me for this product. Oh right, a third of that is gone it taxes. Now I'm basically hemorrhaging cash with every word I type. That's a pass, then.
Okay, so let's say this agent / publisher is really good and she says "No no, we MUST HAVE your book, here's a c. 2007 era advance of thirty thousand dollars!" That's better. Of course, the person on the other end of the phone is going to want fifteen points at the top($4500, leaving $25,500, or around 18 grand after taxes). That's not a whole heck of a lot better. 18 grand, and I'll never see another dime from my book? That's not great business practice if I'm doing this full-time.
Remember, this is your product. At this point 100% of the revenue and potential revenue is yours. All you're doing with an advance is giving away about 85% of the revenue in exchange for a cash settlement.
Let's stop for a sec and talk about what publishers actually do, which is tons of stuff you're actually paying for by giving away your revenue. They find you an editor. They find you a book designer and (most importantly) a cover designer. They set up interviews and send out review copies and go to trade shows and list your book in distributor catalogues and buy ads and fund book tours. Okay, let's assume they do all of that. Because most publishers will only do about half of that, for 85% of the revenues minus your cash advance. Some publishers work very very hard. Some do not. No surprises there, that's just business.



















